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Volume 18, Issue 2
Learning Epidemic Trajectories Through Kernel Operator Learning: From Modelling to Optimal Control

Giovanni Ziarelli, Nicola Parolini & Marco Verani

Numer. Math. Theor. Meth. Appl., 18 (2025), pp. 285-324.

Published online: 2025-05

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  • Abstract

Since infectious pathogens start spreading into a susceptible population, mathematical models can provide policy makers with reliable forecasts and scenario analyses, which can be concretely implemented or solely consulted. In these complex epidemiological scenarios, machine learning architectures can play an important role, since they directly reconstruct data-driven models circumventing the specific modelling choices and the parameter calibration, typical of classical compartmental models. In this work, we discuss the efficacy of kernel operator learning (KOL) to reconstruct population dynamics during epidemic outbreaks, where the transmission rate is ruled by an input strategy. In particular, we introduce two surrogate models, named KOL-m and KOL-$∂,$ which reconstruct in two different ways the evolution of the epidemics. Moreover, we evaluate the generalization performances of the two approaches with different kernels, including the neural tangent kernels, and compare them with a classical neural network model learning method. Employing synthetic but semi-realistic data, we show how the two introduced approaches are suitable for realizing fast and robust forecasts and scenario analyses, and how these approaches are competitive for determining optimal intervention strategies with respect to specific performance measures.

  • AMS Subject Headings

65Z05, 47-08, 68Q32, 68T05

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COPYRIGHT: © Global Science Press

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@Article{NMTMA-18-285, author = {Ziarelli , GiovanniParolini , Nicola and Verani , Marco}, title = {Learning Epidemic Trajectories Through Kernel Operator Learning: From Modelling to Optimal Control}, journal = {Numerical Mathematics: Theory, Methods and Applications}, year = {2025}, volume = {18}, number = {2}, pages = {285--324}, abstract = {

Since infectious pathogens start spreading into a susceptible population, mathematical models can provide policy makers with reliable forecasts and scenario analyses, which can be concretely implemented or solely consulted. In these complex epidemiological scenarios, machine learning architectures can play an important role, since they directly reconstruct data-driven models circumventing the specific modelling choices and the parameter calibration, typical of classical compartmental models. In this work, we discuss the efficacy of kernel operator learning (KOL) to reconstruct population dynamics during epidemic outbreaks, where the transmission rate is ruled by an input strategy. In particular, we introduce two surrogate models, named KOL-m and KOL-$∂,$ which reconstruct in two different ways the evolution of the epidemics. Moreover, we evaluate the generalization performances of the two approaches with different kernels, including the neural tangent kernels, and compare them with a classical neural network model learning method. Employing synthetic but semi-realistic data, we show how the two introduced approaches are suitable for realizing fast and robust forecasts and scenario analyses, and how these approaches are competitive for determining optimal intervention strategies with respect to specific performance measures.

}, issn = {2079-7338}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.4208/nmtma.OA-2024-0097}, url = {http://global-sci.org/intro/article_detail/nmtma/24066.html} }
TY - JOUR T1 - Learning Epidemic Trajectories Through Kernel Operator Learning: From Modelling to Optimal Control AU - Ziarelli , Giovanni AU - Parolini , Nicola AU - Verani , Marco JO - Numerical Mathematics: Theory, Methods and Applications VL - 2 SP - 285 EP - 324 PY - 2025 DA - 2025/05 SN - 18 DO - http://doi.org/10.4208/nmtma.OA-2024-0097 UR - https://global-sci.org/intro/article_detail/nmtma/24066.html KW - Operator learning, optimal control, kernel regression, kernel operator learning, dynamical systems, epidemiology. AB -

Since infectious pathogens start spreading into a susceptible population, mathematical models can provide policy makers with reliable forecasts and scenario analyses, which can be concretely implemented or solely consulted. In these complex epidemiological scenarios, machine learning architectures can play an important role, since they directly reconstruct data-driven models circumventing the specific modelling choices and the parameter calibration, typical of classical compartmental models. In this work, we discuss the efficacy of kernel operator learning (KOL) to reconstruct population dynamics during epidemic outbreaks, where the transmission rate is ruled by an input strategy. In particular, we introduce two surrogate models, named KOL-m and KOL-$∂,$ which reconstruct in two different ways the evolution of the epidemics. Moreover, we evaluate the generalization performances of the two approaches with different kernels, including the neural tangent kernels, and compare them with a classical neural network model learning method. Employing synthetic but semi-realistic data, we show how the two introduced approaches are suitable for realizing fast and robust forecasts and scenario analyses, and how these approaches are competitive for determining optimal intervention strategies with respect to specific performance measures.

Ziarelli , GiovanniParolini , Nicola and Verani , Marco. (2025). Learning Epidemic Trajectories Through Kernel Operator Learning: From Modelling to Optimal Control. Numerical Mathematics: Theory, Methods and Applications. 18 (2). 285-324. doi:10.4208/nmtma.OA-2024-0097
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